2012 Academy Awards Original Score Predictions

Posted: January 9, 2012 by filmmusicreporter in Film Music News
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On December 22, the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences announced the movies eligible in the Best Original Score category for the 84th Academy Award. Among the 97 scores on the list, we think about a quarter of the titles have a realistic chance of getting one of the five nominations. Among those scores, there are ten titles that we consider to have frontrunner status (including two scores that should get nominated for sure). The other scores listed seem more like long shots, but past years have shown that surprise nominations are possible.

The Locks:

Ludovic Bource who has composed the score for the black-and-white romance The Artist has already won the European Film Award, the Best Use of Music in Film Award by the Boston Film Critics, as well as as the Best Score Award by the Washington DC Film Critics. Bource also received a Golden Globe and a Broadcast Film Critics Association Award nomination. The fact that the movie doesn’t feature any dialogue makes the music carry a much heavier load than in a most other pictures and the score has been singled out in an unusually large number of film reviews. In addition, the universal acclaim of the film, as well its Oscar chances in other categories (including Best Pictures) makes The Artist our current pick to win the award unless the controversy around the limited use of Bernard Herrmann’s score from Alfred Hitchcock’s Vertigo in the film keeps growing and ends up impacting some voters.

Also almost guaranteed to be nominated is John Williams for his score for Steven Spielberg’s epic adventure War Horse. The composer is arguably the most respected living composer in the business and has been nominated 45 times before, more than any other living person. His three year-absence from the awards race and film scoring in general might have even increased his stature. The movie has received mostly positive reviews and is also considered a likely contender in other categories. Williams has also received a Golden Globe nomination for his music. Some critics have described the score as “overly manipulative”, but our impression is that this view is not shared by the wider film music community (which includes the Academy’s music branch).

The Other Frontrunners:

John Williams‘ second score in contention is for Steven Spielberg’s The Adventures of Tintin, the composer’s first animated film. The movie is a frontrunner in the Best Animated Feature category (along with Rango) and has been received well by critics and audiences alike (if more so in Europe than in the US). While War Horse is the more obvious choice for the composer to receive a nomination, Williams has been nominated twice in a single year before (the last time just 6 years ago for Munich and Memoirs in a Geisha) and it wouldn’t be surprising if he receives a double nomination again.

Another favorite of the Academy is Alexandre Desplat who has been nominated four times before in the last five years and has yet to receive the award. Among his scores in contention this year is Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. The critical response for the drama directed by Stephen Daldry has been mixed, but reactions to Desplat’s score have been overall very positive. After a very promising debut in limited release at the box office, the second and third weekend haven’t been quite as impressive, but it’s still too early to tell how the film will perform once it opens in wide release later this month. Compared with Desplat’s other frontrunner score (see below), Extremely Loud has the advantage of being featured very prominently during the film, which could increase its chances for a nomination.

Possibly the score with the highest profile this year among general audiences is The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo written by last year’s Oscar winners Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross. While the composers have a very good chance to receive their second nominations, we don’t quite think it’s a definite thing as neither the score nor the movie appears to be have been received quite as well as their work for last year’s The Social Network. The movie has been mostly praised by critics, but also slightly underperformed at the box office. The score has received a Golden Globe, as well as a Broadcast Film Critics Association Award nomination.

Alexandre Desplat‘s second score in the race is for George Clooney’s political drama The Ides of March, which has been nominated for a Golden Globe in the Best Drama category and has also received one of the ten Producer’s Guild Association nominations. Compared with the composer’s score for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, the music in The Ides of March is a little more subdued and used more sparingly during the film and might not be as noticeable to some voters. However, the British Academy of Film and Television picked The Ides of March (and the composer’s Harry Potter score) on their longlist of nomination, while Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close was missing from the list.

Among the year’s biggest box office surprise successes is the drama The Help. The movie is considered a very likely candidate to receive a Best Picture nomination. Thomas Newman has composed the music for the film. The composer is without a doubt among the Academy’s favorite composers and has been nominated for 10 Oscars, while still waiting for his first (long overdue) win. Newman also has a shot of receiving his second nomination in the Original Song category for co-writing the song The Living Proof from The Help, which has been nominated for a Golden Globe, as well as a Broadcast Film Critics Association Award. A possible risk for the composer is the number of scores he has in contention this year (including another frontrunner with The Iron Lady), which could lead to a split of the votes among the Newman-supporters in the Academy.

Also a frontrunner in the Best Picture race is Martin Scorsese’s Hugo. Howard Shore‘s score has been nominated for a Golden Globe and the Broadcast Film Critics Association Movie Award. The composer has also just been honored at the Palm Springs Film Festival for his work on the film, which has been widely received with positive reviews. Shore hasn’t been nominated since winning two Oscars in the Best Score category (and one in the Best Original Song category) for two of the Lord of the Rings films, but it looks like Hugo could be his best chance for a nomination since 2004 before the composer will most likely be in the race again next year with Peter Jackson’s The Hobbit.

Thomas Newman‘s second possible contender is for the biopic The Iron Lady (his other scores from 2011 include The Adjustment Bureau and The Debt, both very unlikely to factor in this year’s race). While the movie has received a somewhat mixed critical response so far, the film’s box office in its first two weeks in limited release has been very impressive and lead actress Meryl Streep is considered to be the frontrunner in the Best Actress category, which will definitely have a positive impact on the movie’s profile. Compared with The Help, the score arguably stands out slightly more within the movie, which could also benefit this title.

The final entry in the frontrunner category is Tinker Tailor Solider Spy composed by Alberto Iglesias. While the movie has been received very well by critics, the film hasn’t shown up on a lot of critics or other awards lists. On the other hand, the movie’s box office in limited release so far has been impressive, beating out such contenders as The Artist when they had a similar screen count. Iglesias is clearly another composer respected by the Academy’s music branch, having previously been nominated twice for The Constant Gardener and The Kite Runner, both times for films that were not among the Best Picture favorites.

The Other Possibilities:

Brian Byrne‘s score for the period drama Albert Nobbs directed by Rodrigo Garcia has been met with positive reactions from a number of critics. Since the movie only will be opening in limited release later this month (after a qualifying run in December in LA), it’s too early to judge the film’s popularity outside of the critics group, but it already has received several nominations for the performances of Glenn Close and supporting actress Janet McTeer. Byrne has also co-written the Sinéad O’Connor-performed song Lay Your Head Down with Close, which has received several nominations (including a Golden Globe nod) and is considered one of the frontrunners for a nomination in the Best Original Song category at the Oscars.

Alan Silvestri has written one of the most popular film score of the year among film music critics for Joe Johnston’s Captain America: The First Avenger. The score’s old-fashioned and thematic quality could also have impressed some Academy members. Silvestri had been nominated twice before, although only once in the Best Score category for Forrest Gump. While the movie won’t have much of a chance in most categories, it has a very good shot of being nominated in the other music category for the Alan Menken-written song A Star Spangled Man.

Cliff Martinez had one of the most impressive years of his career to date with three scores coming out in 2011, including Drive, The Lincoln Lawyer and Contagion. While Drive was disqualified and The Lincoln Lawyer not among the finalists, the composer’s music for Steven Soderbergh’s movie had been singled out in a positive way in several film reviews of major publications. However, the movie is not expected to be among the nominees in most categories despite a generally positive critical reaction.

A score that has received a lot of attention in early 2011 is Hanna composed by The Chemical Brothers. The music also won the Best Music award from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association. The movie is not considered a contender in any main category, but the score’s high profile (also partly based on The Chemical Brothers‘ success outside of their film work) could have kept the title in the minds of some voters.

The third score in contention by Alexandre Desplat is his music for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2. The film has received the best reviews of any film in the series and is even being pushed for a Best Picture nomination by its studio Warner Bros, but compared to his other two scores listed above, we think this score is less likely to be recognized just because the series might still be most connected musically to John Williams who scored the first three films and whose themes have also been used by Desplat in his score for the finale.

Another score that was released in the first quarter of 2011 is Jane Eyre composed by Dario Marianelli who has received his first Oscar in 2008 for Atonement. Marianelli’s music is another film music critics’ favorite and is the type of score that tends to get nominated often, but the movie’s early release date and lack of likely nominations in the main categories would make a nomination a surprise, if entirely possible. The score also landed on the BAFTA’s longlist of 15 titles that could get nominated for the Orange British Academy Film Awards.

Another widely praised score by general film critics is Moneyball composed by Mychael Danna. The Bennett Miller-directed movie is considered a strong candidate in many of the top categories, including Best Picture, Screenplay, Actor (Brad Pitt) and Supporting Actor (Jonah Hill) and Danna is long overdue his first nomination. The relative subdued nature of the score in the film might make it difficult to be recognized by some voters, but the score can’t completely be counted out.

John Powell who received his much deserved first Oscar nomination for How to Train Your Dragon last year has written the music for four animated films that were released this year, two of which have been included on the finalists list: Rio and Happy Feet Two. Rio does seem to be the more likely contender as the film is also a possible contender in the Animated feature category, while the chances for a nomination for the Happy Feet sequel have to be considered low following a lukewarm critical reaction and underperformance of the film at the box office.

One of the surprise hits of the summer hit, both commerically and critically was Rise of the Planet of the Apes. The score is written by Patrick Doyle who has been Oscar-nominated twice before. The composer had one of his most productive years of his career in 2011, which also included the score for another summer blockbuster with Thor, but as only the Planet of the Apes prequel appears to be pushed for Awards consideration outside of the technical categories, we think that Apes would be the more likely contender.

Alberto Iglesias‘ second score in contention is for Pedro Almadovar’s drama The Skin I Live In (La piel que habito). The composer has been nominated for Best Composer at the European Film Awards for his work on the film. The score has also been nominated for the ALFS Award at the London Critics Circle Film Awards. Iglesias’ music has also been mentioned positively by several domestic film critics and film music writers. Coupled with the composer’s popularity within the Academy (as noted above), the score could get a surprise nomination.

Another composer who had one of the busiest years of his career is Michael Giacchino, the winner of the award for his music for Pixar’s Up in 2010 and a previous nominee for Ratatouille. Among the composer’s four qualifying movies (Cars 2, Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol, Monte Carlo, Super 8), we think that Super 8 would have the best chances of his scores as the film has been received well both by critics and audiences, while Cars 2 and Monte Carlo didn’t fare as well with critics and Mission Impossible is not the type of score that tends to get nominated (and also heavily uses another composer’s theme).

A surprise nominee at the Golden Globes, Abel Korzeniowski‘s score for Madonna’s W.E. has been met with enthusiastic reviews across the board in the film music community. The film hasn’t been received quite as well by critics and won’t be competing in any major category. The composer had been in the awards race before for 2009’s A Single Man, which didn’t make the nominations list two years ago, but had been considered one of the frontrunners.

  1. alvin says:

    I’m rooting for Jane Eyre. That score is simply sublime.

    I also hope Hugo will be nominated. It’s just one of the scores that you fell in love with the first time you hear it. I don’t think I can say that for Tintin.

    And if Warner Bros’ campaign for Harry Potter to land a nomination for Best Picture and Best Supporting Actor for Alan Rickman fail (which I’m sure it will), I’ll be happy to have Desplat nominated for at least original score.

    And for the record, Hanna’s score is more of an “actual music” than Trent Reznor’s “sound design” in Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.